The low processing difference suppresses the enthusiasm of the factory for production. In addition, the downstream polyester operating rate is high, and the PTA price has a strong support. Even if the launch of new production capacity is bad for prices, the PTA market also has the fundamental conditions to support its strong operation.
The PTA price rebounded from around 4,200 yuan/ton at the end of March to the recent 4,600 yuan/ton front line, mainly driven by the increase in equipment maintenance, the strong crude oil price and the high polyester operating rate. Looking ahead, in the short term, the logic of market operation is on the cost side.
PTA processing cost is low
In recent years, the increase in PTA production capacity has increased the supply of PTA on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has also boosted the demand for related accessories. Among them, due to different devices, the unit consumption of acetic acid is distributed between 29-40KG/T. According to the average value of 35KG/T, the current consumption of acetic acid in a single month in PTA production is 150,000-160,000 tons, and the consumption has increased by 23% year-on-year.
The domestic PTA industry’s demand for acetic acid has risen, and the shutdown of foreign acetic acid plants has also stimulated domestic export demand. It is reported that since the beginning of the year, acetic acid production capacity involving 5.8 million tons/year has been temporarily shut down or reduced, accounting for about 63% of the total production capacity. Therefore, the acetic acid market has a short-term tight supply due to the increase in equipment failure rate and new capacity in May to June.
At present, some manufacturers are quoting acetic acid at RMB 7,200-7,300/ton, which means that the cost of acetic acid for producing one ton of PTA is about RMB 290. From March until now, the PTA plant has occasionally announced load reductions. Judging from the current situation, the price of PTA has not increased as much as that of PX, and the difference in PTA processing has returned below 300 yuan/ton. Taking into account the rise in the price of acetic acid, the probability of effective improvement of PTA processing fee in a short time is unlikely. The amount of equipment maintenance may continue to be high in May. . At present, Hengli Petrochemical No. 5 and Yisheng Ningbo’s installations are scheduled to be overhauled. The specific time is yet to be determined. The Xinfengming 2# and Ningbo Liwan installations are planned to be overhauled in mid-May. This round of maintenance involves a total production capacity of 6.35 million tons/year.
polyester operating rate is high
From March 5 to April 16, the polyester operating rate remained at 92% for seven consecutive weeks, and the operating rate on April 16 increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the operating rate of filament and staple fiber is high, while the operating rate of bottle flakes is decreasing seasonally. The overall load of the polyester plant is stable, with an average of 92.98%. However, in the short term, there is a negative plan for polyester plants, such as Xinfengming Zhongyue’s 300,000-ton/year plant, and the load is expected to climb to 93%.
Data shows that in the second quarter, there will be new production capacity for filament and staple fiber. Among them, the new capacity of filament yarn and staple fiber will increase by 1.4 million tons per year, and the demand for PTA will increase accordingly.
In addition, the overseas downstream market ushered in the peak season, and my country’s supply of goods is lower than the local 200-230 euros / ton, the domestic export of polyester bottle flakes is profitable, and the subsequent export volume will continue to rise.
PX is in de-stocking state
The U.S. stimulus plan brought inflation expectations, OPEC+ maintained production cuts, and the increase in the number of vaccinations boosted the crude oil market. There is no basis for a sharp drop in crude oil prices in the short term. In addition, in the second quarter, PX entered the traditional maintenance season. South Korea’s maintenance involved production capacity of 1.17 million tons/year, Japan involved 460,000 tons/year, India involved 2.25 million tons/year, my country involved 1.4 million tons/year, and the total production capacity exceeded 500. 10,000 tons/year. At the same time, Yisheng New Materials plans to start production in May, involving a production capacity of approximately 3.5 million tons per year. At that time, the demand for PX as a raw material is bound to increase. Therefore, the PX market was still in a state of destocking in the second quarter.
To sum up, the low processing difference suppresses the enthusiasm for starting the PTA device. In addition to the high operating rate of polyester, the price of PTA has a strong support. Although Yisheng New Material’s 3.5 million tons/year production capacity is planned to be launched in May, PTA supply will increase, but PX demand will also increase, and the second quarter is the traditional PX maintenance season. In the short term, the PTA trend will still be dominant at the cost PX end. It can be said that the new production capacity is temporarily negative for PTA prices, and PTA has the fundamentals to support its strong operation, and the opportunity for long bands is expected.
Post time: Apr-26-2021